Category: Detroit Red Wings

Breaking down the NHL Playoffs, and coming to grips with the Wings’ reality

ESPN has a playoff power meter (behind its paywall) that judges teams on the the pieces they have in place compared to what past Stanley Cup champions had.

The fact the Red Wings are No. 1 on this list does not make it absurd. The fact that the Red Wings are so far from the pack, and one point away from a perfect score, probably does.

With Darren Helm suddenly a possibility for Game 1 of the first round, I like the Wings a lot more than I did a few days ago. Heck, I even have this wild theory that if they get by Nashville, they’re likely to win the West (I’ll explain that later).

But according to that list, the Wings are the favorite, which is ridiculous. The way they’ve played as of late (which I’m assuming this formula isn’t taking into account) does not inspire confidence, regardless of the fact they came back and beat the Blues in St. Louis. I have news for y’all, the Blues aren’t that good. The defense is an absolute mess, making critical errors at horrible times, and in the playoffs that will kill you. Sure, Jakub Kindl is probably going to be replaced by Brendan Smith, and that provides more upside, but it doesn’t take away the fact that mistakes are going to be made. Kyle Quincey is going to get ice time, so that’s bad. I’ll admit I was a fan of that trade deadline acquisition, but Quincey has been disappointing since arriving.

But it’s the matchup with Nashville that scares me more than anything. The Predators are the type of team we’ve always worried about as Red Wings fans — physical, disciplined defensively and backed by a great goaltender capable of stealing a series by himself. The one thing I never worried about with the Predators was their offense, as they have nobody that scares you coming up the ice with the puck on his stick. Well, had. With Alexander Radulov, the Predators have their scary offensive weapon. Or at least a guy who makes them collectively scary enough to, well, scare you.

My pessimistic (realistic?) prediction for this series is the Predators winning in six or seven games, and frankly I could see them winning it all.

But there’s a part of me that wants to pick the Red Wings because I know if they get through this, they could be well on their way to something special. Why’s that, after I just banged on them? Because of what’s left. Chicago should beat Phoenix, meaning one of two things will happen to the Wings: They’ll either play against St. Louis in the second round, or have home-ice advantage against the Blackhawks (if the Sharks beat the Blues, they’ll play the Canucks). Either of those matchups are OK with me, and for the first time in a long time, the Wings are spared traveling out west until the conference finals. Once they get there, I’m not all that worried about the Canucks. I don’t have any statistical evidence to make me feel good about this, and I realize the Canucks were a game away from winning the Cup a year ago so they’ve somewhat shed their identity as playoff choke artists, but I will never fear the Canucks as a Red Wings fan. Yes, I realize I’m being irrational.

Unfortunately, knowing the road ahead would be easier to navigate is not a very good reason to pick a team to win a series, and I see a first-round exit for the Wings.

As for the rest of the West … Vancouver should defeat the Kings, but it will probably take six games and a couple of goalie shuffles. … The Blues and Sharks will be the most entertaining non-Wings series outside of the state of Pennsylvania, and I think it goes seven. There, I think the Blues take it, as they are pretty damn good at home. … I already told you I think the Blackhawks beat the Coyotes, mainly because I doubt Mike Smith can keep this up.

That leaves us with some pretty intriguing second-round matchups as the Canucks meet their nemesis the Blackhawks, and the Blues and Predators will clash. I like the Canucks in seven against the Blackhawks in another ridiculously fun series. I think the Predators make fairly easy work of the Blues, winning in five or six games.

The Canucks and Predators split their season series, with the Canucks getting one of their two wins in a shootout. I just think with Radulov in the lineup, the Predators have the added firepower necessary to get them over the top.

On to the East … The Rangers have their hands full against an Ottawa team that gave them fits during the regular season. I see Henrik Lundqvist being the difference, however. And yes, I realize it’s not a good thing for the 1 seed to need its goaltender to be the difference in the first round. … Washington is toast, and I think Bruins sweep them. … Congratulations, Florida, on making the playoffs for the first time post-lockout. Enjoy your five-game stay. The Devils coast. … In what should be the most entertaining series of the first round, the Pens will knock off the Flyers in seven games. Unfortunately for the Penguins, they’ll barely have anything left for the next round.

The Rangers and Devils playing in a playoff series will be the only time two teams from New York/New Jersey ever meet and don’t lead Sportscenter every day. The Devils will push the Rangers to seven games, but the Rangers will survive. The Bruins will take advantage of the beat-up Penguins, and the physical toll will only build through this series. It will take seven games, because the Penguins are the better team, but the Bruins will simply survive.

OK, this one might lead Sportscenter. OK, it won’t but I’m thinking it might make the first half hour. Boston and New York, folks, get ready for it. Prepare for the compare/contrast between rugged underdog Timmy Thomas and upstate pretty boy Lundqvist. There’s something special about the Rangers this year, and it’s not just that I watched them on 24/7 this year (OK, maybe it is).

So the finals, Rangers vs. Predators. We could see seven 1-0 games, and they’d be fast-paced, physical 1-0 games that I would actually enjoy watching. When it comes down to it, I really like what this Predators team has going for it, and I think they go from winning a playoff series for the first time a year ago to winning it all this year.

Puck Wit Presents: NHL Trade Dudline 2012

The 2012 trade deadline has come and gone.  A potential seismic shift in the landscape of the NHL instead developed into a grueling, hours-long game of flick-the-tip.  And anyone with half a brain has to be asking “Why?”  In a year when so many teams are riding the razor’s edge between the post-season and April golf, GMs around the league were curiously quiet.  Sure, there were a few “depth moves” around the league.  But for most of the day, the consensus among the “insider” media was that the Nick Schultz (D) for Tom Gilbert (D) trade between Edmonton and Minnesota was the deal of the day.  Wrap your brain around that.

The Rick Nash Saga, although far from over, ended with Columbus GM Scott Howson declining to accept Glen Sather’s “mammoth package.”  This, apparently, was because Howson was intent on screwing himself.  The Washington Capitals, a team that should have been extremely active on Deadline Day, did nothing.  Ditto for the Philadelphia Flyers, whose only deals were to bring in defensemen Pavel Kubina and Nicklas Grossman from Tampa Bay and Dallas a week earlier. Not exactly replacements for the still-concussed Chris Pronger.

Since I can’t bear to go through the entire boring list of “depth” moves yet again, here are my Trade Deadline Day 2012 highlights.

Columbus Blue Jackets - Scott Howson is Delusional

What Happened: On February 23, the Columbus GM traded pure goal-scorer Jeff Carter to the Los Angeles Kings for highly touted yet underachieving defenseman Jack Johnson and a conditional first round pick. A pick that Columbus’ new GM can use in 2013. A day earlier Howson dished forward Antoine Vermette to Phoenix for another sub-par goaltender and two more draft picks he won’t be around to use.  Then, he refused to trade Nash despite reports of the Rangers offering a “mammoth package” (Pierre LeBrun’s words, not mine) that likely would have stopped some of the hemorrhaging occurring amongst the Blue Jackets’ forward lines.  Adding insult to injury, Howson took to the press on Monday evening to sewer Columbus captain Nash as emphatically as possible.  Amazingly, Howson also managed put on the record that he believes he will still have a job by the end of the season.  I choose to believe Howson is delusional.  The alternative explanations for his behavior are just too depressing.

Bottom Line: Columbus is in worse shape than they were a month ago, which is a pretty neat trick.  Howson should be fired before he screws up another chance to deal Nash.  There’s no way Nationwide can still be on his side and maintain credibility with the dwindling Blue Jacket fan base.

Washington Capitals – George McPhee has a set of Brass Balls

What Happened: Nothing.  Not. A. Thing. Despite being a point out of the 8th and final playoff spot, Caps GM George McPhee decided to stand pat, intimating that prices were too high and, incredulously, that the Caps “can beat anyone in the [Eastern] conference with a healthy Nicklas Backstrom.”  He’s right about prices being high.  The Nash debacle and the Paul Gaustad for a first round pick deal prove it.  But McPhee’s confidence in his current squad reeks of desperation.  On paper, the Capitals are loaded. They should be a dominant force in the sub-par Eastern conference.  Yet they aren’t.  And it has become very clear over the last couple months that Bruce Boudreau was not the problem.  McPhee has clearly taken the public position that missing the playoffs and/or cleaning house are not options currently on the table.  The problem is that Washington is in the midst of a dogfight with Toronto and Winnipeg for the final spot in the East, and success is far from guaranteed.  McPhee had a chance to improve, short-term, and didn’t take it.  And while I understand that he didn’t want to mortgage the future, his inactivity is bizarre when you consider his “failure is not an option” stance.

Bottom Line: The Caps are in trouble.  After winning the Eastern Conference for the last two years with largely the same team, they’re one point out of the playoffs going into March. With seemingly half the team—including lame duck head coach Dale Hunter—up for new contracts at the end of the season, I’m a bit surprised McPhee didn’t take the opportunity to move a few guys out, bring a few guys in, and better position his team to lock up that final playoff spot.  Normally this is where I’d say “but what do I know, I’m just a fan” but if yesterday taught me anything, it is that I give most NHL GMs too much credit.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Stevie Why Not?.

What Happened: GM Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightning made a few moves to shore up their blue line and managed to secure a few extra draft picks in the process.  Yzerman’s deadline-day deal with The Irishman in Toronto could prove to be an excellent deal for both teams.  Toronto acquired the Lightning’s top prospect, power forward Carter Ashton, while TB picked up young Toronto defenseman Keith Aulie, who (if he pans out) will be a valuable addition to the Lightning’s blue line corps.  Yzerman also managed to score a “thank you” defenseman from Detroit in the form of journeyman Mike Commodore.  The consensus seems to be that Commodore was a gift from Ken Holland as a token of thanks for Yzerman’s role in the three-way deal with Colorado that brought Kyle Quincey back to Detroit last week.  The Lightning also acquired Ottawa d-man Brian Lee in exchange for Matt Gilroy.  The loss of Pavel Kubina is a bit more palatable.  Yzerman’s restrained but proactive moves indicate an acknowledgement that while post-season play is unlikely this year; the Lightning will be looking to actively improve their defense while building on their solid core of forwards.  One would imagine their offseason priority will be goaltending.

Bottom Line: Yzerman has proven to be a fascinating GM.  Clearly, he’s learned from his time under the venerable Ken Holland in Detroit.  Yzerman is equally comfortable as a buyer and seller, and seems to have a steady, pragmatic hand on the Tampa Bay tiller.  Like Holland, Yzerman plays the long game, and it will be interesting to see if any of the seeds he has planted bear fruit.

Nashville Predators – The Team No One Wants to Play Just Got Tougher

What Happened:  Nashville added rough and tumble center Paul Gaustad and struggling goal-scorer Andrei Kostitsyn on Deadline Day and added defenseman Hal Gill a week prior.  David Poile, a hidden gem among NHL General Managers, continues to systematically assemble a team that is on the cusp of becoming one of the elite squads in the tough-as-nails Western Conference.  Kostitsyn, who is reunited with his brother Sergei, should provide a boost to Nashville’s offense, and Gaustad is a big body who will win face-offs and exact a physical toll on opposing teams.  Nashville is already one of the tougher teams in the West, and their devotion to Barry Trotz’s disciplined, defensive-minded system is near-total. On top of everything else, Nashville has the best goaltender in the league in the towering Finn Pekka Rinne.  The only piece the Predators lack is a true “superstar” forward.  Rumors abounded on Deadline Day that Poile was putting the hard sell on Columbus to acquire Rick Nash, but to no avail.  Had that trade gone through, the groans of consternation from Detroit and Vancouver would have been audible from coast to coast.

Bottom Line:  David Poile knows his team is on the cusp of something special, and is clearly looking to make a run in the playoffs this year.  After nearly knocking off Chicago two years ago and doing the same to Vancouver last year, the Predators just might have found the right mix of dedication, intelligence and grit that could propel them into the Stanley Cup Final.  Sure, they gave up a first-rounder for Gaustad, but come July that pick could look like a pittance if the Cup makes an appearance in Music City.

Vancouver Canucks and Detroit Red Wings – the Best of the West

What Happened:  Ken Holland unanimously considered one of the best—if not the best—GMs in the league, took this year’s trade deadline in stride.  The acquisition of Kyle Quincey in a three-way deal with Colorado and Tampa Bay shores up a depleted blue line corps and serves as a hedge against the departure of Brad Stuart and the potential retirement of future Hall of Famer Nick Lidstrom in the offseason.  Holland also managed to pick up a seventh round pick from Tampa, which in the Wings’ organization will likely turn into another Zetterberg or Datsyuk five years from now. 

In stark contrast to the Wings, the Vancouver Canucks had a busy day on Monday, adding some toughness and physicality to a squad many consider to be the best in the West, while trading away potential superstar Cody Hodgson.  GM Mike Gillis, alternatively a hero and villain to the fickle Vancouver fan base, was clearly looking to bolster the Canucks’ ability to play in their own end.  Forward Sami Pahlsson is an excellent third line center, and 6’3” 214 lb. winger Zack Kassian, obtained from Buffalo in the Hodgson deal, has the potential to develop into a player of the Todd Bertuzzi/Milan Lucic mold.  Pahlsson and Kassian will add some much-needed toughness that will complement Vancouver’s platoon of offensive-minded forwards.

Bottom Line:  While Detroit and Vancouver are clearly the powerhouses in the West, their differing Deadline Day strategies seem to indicate that Ken Holland is a bit more confident in his players’ ability to win than his counterpart in BC.  From the GM to the players to the fans, Vancouver doesn’t lack for reactionaries.  Both teams improved at the deadline.  Only time will tell which of these two juggernauts will come out on top.  Unless one of these two teams is upset by Nashville in the first or second round, expect a long and fiery Western Conference Final between these two teams.

San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings – The Rest of the West

What Happened:  Dean Lombardi, GM of the currently-in-tenth-place Los Angeles Kings should have probably lost his job after the Kings were knocked out in the first round last year.  He didn’t, and he now seems bent on making sure history doesn’t repeat itself.  To that end, Lombardi traded away highly touted (but underachieving) defenseman Jack Johnson and LA’s first round pick in 2013 to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for pure goal scorer Jeff Carter.  In a Kings lineup sorely lacking scoring punch, Carter is expected to put the puck in the net early and often.  But is he ready for that kind of pressure?  In eight months with Blue Jackets, Carter underperformed.  Lombardi’s hope is that Carter’s reunion with Philly teammate Mike Richards will lead to sunburn for opposing goaltenders.  But Carter has little or no time to get up to speed.  Goals need to come immediately if the Kings hope to rise out of the morass at the bottom of the Western Conference playoff picture.

Heading north, the San Jose Sharks appear to be as clueless as ever.  Perennial underachievers (unless the NHL is secretly giving out a trophy for 86ing the Red Wings), the Sharks made some of the strangest moves in the league on Deadline Day.  San Jose GM Doug Wilson sent middling forward Jamie McGinn and prospects Michael Sgarbossa and Mike Connelly to Colorado in exchange for middling forwards Daniel Winnick and T.J. Galiardi.  Winnick and Galiardi are, in the vernacular, shit-stirrers.  Like most of the Avs roster, they were languishing under the ham-fisted rule of coach Joe Sacco, but whether a change of scenery will cause them to elevate their game remains to be seen.  WIth a combined 13 playoff appearances between the two newest Sharks, it is hard to see how this trade made San Jose any better. And that makes it hard to see how the Sharks can expect to reach the Stanley Cup Finals this year.  Anything less and Doug Wilson should, and likely will, be fired.  The Sharks are, to a lesser degree, the Washington Capitals of the West.

Bottom Line:  Carter could be the boost the Kings need.  Or, he could continue to underperform and the Kings will miss the playoffs.  If that happens, expect a bloodbath in the LA front office.  In San Jose, my prediction is that their deadline day moves make little or no difference.  The Sharks are their own worst enemy.  At times, they almost appear to lack the will to win.  Unless Thornton, Marleau, Couture and the rest catch fire soon, San Jose will be fighting for a playoff spot up until the last day of the season.  While the scuttlebutt is that Doug Wilson was hot to trot for Rick Nash, he wasn’t willing to pay the high price Howson put on him.  Ultimately, Wilson’s inability to put together a team that can gel and win consistently will be his downfall.

And there you have it folks.  The 2012 NHL Trade Deadline.  Flick. Flick. Flick. Flick…

Author’s Note: Credit for the “Trade Dudline” headline goes to Justin Ptak (@Jptak) and the “Nationwide is on your side” bit was stolen from Mike Porter (@MPorter25). The mammoth package bits are mine.

Jimmy Howard’s injury was good for Red Wings

Jimmy Howard is expected to be back in goal Tuesday night when the Detroit Red Wings travel to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks. It will be his first game since Feb. 2 when he broke a pinkie finger against the Vancouver Canucks.

When Howard went down, the natural — and correct — response from Red Wings fans was, “Oh $@*%.” Without Howard in the lineup, the Red Wings were 3-5 before his injury as Ty Conklin struggled to find any kind of consistency between the pipes. Not having a healthy Jimmy Howard for two weeks or more looked to be catastrophic as the Red Wings were (and still are) in the middle of a tight divisional and conference race. (more…)

The Red Wings are doing Good… Too Good

I’ve been a huge Red Wings fan since I could remember. And, if one thing stands out to me through all of the years, it’s the fact that they’ve barely managed to make the playoffs with a mediocre goalie, and then rock the playoffs all the way to the Stanley Cup. Both of the Wings last 2 Stanley Cups have come along with the President’s Trophy (2002 and 2008), but remember it was supposed to be the “dream season” in 2006 when the Wings killed the entire Western Conference to win the President’s Trophy, then proceeded to lose to Edmonton in the 1st Round. What I’m saying is that this doesn’t tell the whole story.

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Will Prince Fielder Kill the Detroit Red Wings?

It is almost a day and half old, which in today’s world means it is old news.  However, for those of you who haven’t heard, the Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a 9 year $214 million contract.  By most accounts this was a huge get for the Tigers.  Fielder is 27 years old and in the prime of his career.  In 7 major league seasons Fielder has averaged 37 homers and 106 RBI. Those numbers are likely to improve during the course of the next few years.  The only downsides to Fielder appear to be his lack of a defensive ability and the fact his middle name is Semien (pronounced “See-Man”).  Hey, no one ever accused Big Daddy Cecil of always making solid decisions.  You cannot blame Prince on the middle name thing.  

 

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